Large Mushroom Cloud Detected Over North Korea (no spam)

Vicsun · Post by **Vicsun** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:52 am

Here. This is rather worrying to say the least. I'll be posting here again later; there seem to be conflicting reports as to whether the cloud was caused by a nuclear test.

edit: here, and here are two public seismic graphs from the area. There does seem to be a spike in both of them, however, unless I'm reading the graph wrongly, its time doesn't seem to correspond with the time mentioned in the article.

Xandax · Post by **Xandax** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:57 am

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

According to this article - US Officials doubt it was nuclear. But I guess they don't really know.

Vicsun · Post by **Vicsun** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:20 am

[QUOTE=Xandax]http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiap ... index.html

According to this article - US Officials doubt it was nuclear. But I guess they don't really know.[/QUOTE]

I saw that article as well, but I somehow doubt a forset fire can create a mushroom cloud with a diameter of 4kilometers along with a crater that can be seen from space. You could create such an explosion with about 10 kilotons of TNT, but unless the DPRK have decided to blow up dynamite for fun (or have had a rather large gas tank blown up), it's likely to be a nuclear explosion.

All in all, I don't think there's any doubt concerning the nature of the cloud among the officials. Nuclear blasts are very distinctive from other explosions. Firstly, due to the nature of nuclear fission there is a double pulse of light. Secondly there is a difference in the seismic readings - as far as I know a nuclear blast will only show up as one spike while a blast created by conventional explosives would show up as several smaller spikes. Also, considering that they have seismographs much more accurate than the public ones I posted links to, I say officials know exactly what's going on. The question is, how much do they want to tell us? I, for one, was pretty surprised the news of the blast took this to reach any major news outlets, but that's probably just me being paranoid.

Weasel · Post by **Weasel** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:28 am

Either way, can't stop N. Korea without it leading to a war, too many people around with nukes already.

I had hopes once China could reign in N. Korea.....Russia isn't able, the US would only lead to a possible conflict with China which could have effects worst than N. Korea having a nuke. Any sanctions just hurts the common people of N. Korea, a complete stand still.

I have a bad feeling this impasse will one day lead to a war that makes WW2 look like a minor car wreck.

Vicsun · Post by **Vicsun** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:36 am

You're right...

America can't invade the DPRK without a) China getting involved b) Seoul getting levelled within hours.

edit->
From the NYT (no login required) - remember this is before the media had picked up on the mushroom clouds:

WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 - President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon, according to senior officials with access to the intelligence.

While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.
<snip>

Weasel · Post by **Weasel** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:09 am

Vicsun wrote:

While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.
<snip>

No one is willing to be the fall guy this time. (At least yet) The intelligence agencies in the US need a working over, starting at the top and going right thru to the bottom. I was reading an article explaining some of the problems, and it's not the problem of "walls" between agencies. (I will look for the story Edit< found )

12 Points

has insisted that his approach of involving China, Russia, Japan and South Korea in a new round of talks with the North is the only reasonable way to force the country to disarm.

As much as my disdain grows with Bush (and the rest in Washington), this is the only option the US has.

Nippy · Post by **Nippy** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:34 am

[QUOTE=Vicsun]edit: here, and here are two public seismic graphs from the area. There does seem to be a spike in both of them, however, unless I'm reading the graph wrongly, its time doesn't seem to correspond with the time mentioned in the article.[/QUOTE]

Vicsun you are spot on about the graphs, PDRK is 6 hours ahead of California, and the tremor hit at roughly 2310 local time. I wonder why there is no correspondance between the article and the evidence. They couldn't falsify international seismographs...

VonDondu · Post by **VonDondu** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 7:06 am

[QUOTE=Vicsun]I saw that article as well, but I somehow doubt a forset fire can create a mushroom cloud with a diameter of 4kilometers along with a crater that can be seen from space. You could create such an explosion with about 10 kilotons of TNT, but unless the DPRK have decided to blow up dynamite for fun (or have had a rather large gas tank blown up), it's likely to be a nuclear explosion.[/QUOTE]
You might think this is spam, but my (genuine) reaction to that is: that's exactly what they want you to think. In other words, for all we know, this explosion might have been staged to look like a nuclear test. I wouldn't put it past the North Korean government, or any other government, for that matter.

On the other hand, it could have been a nuclear accident, or even a non-nuclear accident. We just don't know what it was at this point.

Let's wait for the experts to give us some real answers. Or go ahead and feel paranoid, if you prefer.

Vicsun · Post by **Vicsun** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 9:22 am

[QUOTE=VonDondu]You might think this is spam, but my (genuine) reaction to that is: that's exactly what they want you to think. In other words, for all we know, this explosion might have been staged to look like a nuclear test. I wouldn't put it past the North Korean government, or any other government, for that matter.

On the other hand, it could have been a nuclear accident, or even a non-nuclear accident. We just don't know what it was at this point.

Let's wait for the experts to give us some real answers. Or go ahead and feel paranoid, if you prefer.

[/QUOTE]

While I have to admit to loving discussions featuring 'them', I have to say I'm quite preplexed as to the 'they' you're talking about. Is it the North Korean government? Or our beloved USofAian government?

On one hand it is the DPRK that will benefit from the rest of the world believing they have nuclear weapons, but on the other it was a US official that claimed it might have been a forest fire, so I'm unsure as how I should read your post

araknid70 · Post by **araknid70** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:20 am

[QUOTE=Nippy]Vicsun you are spot on about the graphs, PDRK is 6 hours ahead of California, and the tremor hit at roughly 2310 local time. I wonder why there is no correspondance between the article and the evidence. They couldn't falsify international seismographs...[/QUOTE]

No, North Korea is 12 hours ahead of California. The article reported seismic activity at a time of 2300H local time, South Korea. The spike for the first graph indicates a time of 1610 - however the y-axis refers to "Hours UT". I have no idea what that means, but it's most likely referring to GMT, which is seven hours behind N. Korea. The time is correct.

Unfortunately the second graph updates regularly, and can't be used anymore. It's dated 11sep04 now.

tom the terribl · Post by **tom the terribl** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:38 pm

Nuclear Testing

Yes it was a nuclear test but the bomb had no nuclear material. But it still troulbing because if they get a sutable force pattern they will build the bomb and then they will use it.

Recent news said that two bombs were set off. They probably had different shaped explosive and they tested for compression efficiency.

Doubters are in denial.

Xandax · Post by **Xandax** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 10:24 pm

Where did you get this information about the blast?

C Elegans · Post by **C Elegans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:24 am

I am also keen to know where Tom the terribl(e?) got this information. I have not yet seen any confirmation at all of what caused the suspicious cloud.

North Korea made the first official statement today, explaining that the explosion was a demolition of a mountain as part of a hydro-electric project.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3650702.stm

The six-party discussions will continue.

Brynn · Post by **Brynn** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:08 am

Forest fire? Ha-ha!

"Pyongyang said the explosion was in fact the demolition of a mountain as part of a huge hydro-electric project.

In an unusual concession, North Korea said Britain's ambassador in Pyongyang could visit the site to see for himelf. "

That sounds more likely, but what took 4 days to announce that? Weird...

Vicsun · Post by **Vicsun** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:45 am

End of World Postponed Until Further Notice...

Yup, mostly everyone agree it was not a nuclear explosion. Even the orignal yahoo article I linked to now states Korea Cloud Not From Nuclear Blast.

tom the terribl · Post by **tom the terribl** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:22 am

Blast Info

[QUOTE=Xandax]Where did you get this information about the blast?[/QUOTE]

I'm Ex-Navy Vietnam era.

One of my friends is Ex-Marine and a nuclear specialist working contracts all over the US and Europe.

The US did dummy test explosions to find out how to compress nuclear matter. Just think of the effects if they had included nuclear material in such tests. When the US Government said no nuclear matter was detected in the air over Korea nor Japan then this must have been a force test because the size of the explosion was too big to be a new canal as North Korea said. Trench digging is done using a number of small explosives targeted to roughly form the shape of the intended structure. Not two large explosion more likly twenty small ones.

To do a stress test the ball is assembled using inert matter and many force transducers are places inside the wall of the dummy core. The wires are lead out a small hole to a paper or digital recorder that is placed a safe distance away. The shaped explosives are attached to the core and placed inside its carrier. When the explosive is triggered the core will be compressed and the force sensors provide the amount of force being applied to the core and the distrubution inside the core. The sensore only last a few microseconds but the recording device should have captured the information. The explosive used needs to be the same as if it was a real test using nuclear material. Otherwise the test would be invalid and thats why the explosion was so big.

There was two explosions either because NK was testing explosive pattern or they had low confidence in their equipment.