Russia invades Georgia - WW3 on it's way?

[galraen]

So it begins.

In the thirties the road to hell started with the occupation of the Rhineland, then escalated when Germany started claiming it's 'citizens' were being abused and murdered in other countries and using this invented pretext to invade.

Now Russia is using the same ploy in Georgia, were will it go next Kazakhstan, Estonia, Latvia? Who know were the crazy Russian bear will try to devour next.

Madmen in the Whitehouse with compliant mad pawns in Downing Street, madmen in the Kremlin and Beijing. Iraq followed by Tibet and now Georgia, may the Gods help us all.

[Tricky]

Yeah, we were talking about this while we were watching the Olympic cycling road race a few hours ago. Great finish by the way. But doesn't this mean all the Russian athletes get disqualified from the Olympics? A country that participates cannot be at war.

[SupaCat]

A country that participates cannot be at war.

What about the US? Depends on what you call war I guess.

But the war in Georgia is terrible. I asked myself this question last night :'Who do I support?'. An awful question to ask for sure, since you shouldn't support any country that goes on killing people, but still. It would seem an almost nobel gesture of russia to go help the provence in Georgia, but ofcourse this is because they hope they'll get the provence, since already 2/3 of the population there has infact a russian ID.

In some way, it's a civil war. The army of the country attacking its own provence? Seems like Serbia and their provence Kosovo? The US and many other countries "helped" Kosovo in that time and in this way killing hundreds.

[galraen]

So giving another countries inhabitants your citizenship gives you the right to attack that country? Hmm, I wonder how people would react if Britain gave all the people in Eire British citizenship and then invaded?

The citizenship ploy is just that, a blatant ploy to 'justify' a war of aggression, Hitler did it and now Putin and his puppet are trying the same trick.

[Moonbiter]

The ethnic hatred between Georgia and Russia is ancient, but escalated when Soviet invaded in 1921 and the subsequent butchery of hundreds of thousands by the Red Army. This led to a lot of Georgians joining up with the nazis during the second world war and committing unspeakable atrocities against the Russian civilians. This again led to Georgia being treated particularly bad in the years after the war, which led to it becoming a bit of a bandit state. By the end of the 80s, most of the drugs and contraband on the streets of Soviet cities were smuggled in via Georgia, and the Russians hated them even more for it.

I honestly don't see this conflict as a problem. The Georgians are suppressing a bunch of halfwits in a fleapit called South Ossetia, who like all idiot revolutionaries wants independence without a plan to sustain themselves. The Russians go in and beat the Georgians up when they misbehave. Just like the Yanks did in Kososvo, only Kosovo didn't border on Yankland... So Condoleeza "Gollum in a wig" Rice gets to rattle her teeth and make threatening noises, which seems to be all she ever does, and nobody cares as we get another bandit state to provide the streets of Europe with drugs and child prostitutes. End of story. Oh, apparently Georgia and South Ossetia was at war for most of the 90s. Did anybody know that? I didn't. That sure as hell didn't trigger the Third World War. If the Yanks haven't managed that yet, this won't.

[Xandax]

<snip> Oh, apparently Georgia and South Ossetia was at war for most of the 90s. Did anybody know that? I didn't. That sure as hell didn't trigger the Third World War. <snip>

Indeed - the situation is more complex then just "Russia Invades Georgia" and it is difficult to see through the "diplomacy" and lies and history and forming a firm opinion. Especially considering the "civil war" like state through the 90s, the history of USSR, WW2 and so on. My first thought was that Russia was just in it to annex SO and its oil resources and weaken Georgia, however it is difficult to judge given all the circumstances.

Nevertheless however, it could "upset" the entire region with more fighting between the local regions and ex-USSR nations causing a more unstable area then before. Chechnya is still a mess as well for example.

And with Russia having Veto in the UN, that system is effectively put out of effect in this situation.

Russia is desperately trying to prove they are once more a superpower in response to the missile defense system, and they are frequently flying warplanes close to other nations airspace (Denmark's including) for example. And this could just as easily be a result of internal Russian politics as well.

It is a mess this situation, however so are many other burning spots in the world. WW3 doesn't look to be one big war - it'll consists of many "localized" combat/warzones all over the world.

Iran(/Israel) or China to be the next hot spots.

[SupaCat]

Iran is almost sure to be next, if atleast they continue their warprograms.
And Isreal has always been a hot zone and always will be. I don't think China will have troubles in the future. If one big country will go to war against China, we'll have WW3, but russia and Georgia... There have already been conflicts like this in the world and they hardly escalated into something much bigger than that.

@Galrean. I was trying to understand the reasons of Russia to invade, I wasn't approving that, not for a long shot. For the people in the Georgic provence it would seem nobel that the russians came to their aid. And so it would seem to many in russia. It wouldn't suprise me if the propaganda of the russians would include that they freed their brethren from the evil Georgians.
'The citizenship ploy is just that, a blatant ploy to 'justify' a war of aggression, .'
you're right, and that was what I was trying to say.
'All is justified in war' is believe one of the statement so long ago.
If this would escalate, I hope we won't make the same mistake as we did with Hitler. Let him have Czech and let him invade Poland before we start doing something. We should learn from our mistakes we made so long ago, yet I would seem mankind is not capable of learning.

[GawainBS]

I think the main reason for the Russian involvement is the oil and gas. Like Gaelraen said, the "coming to the aid of citizens" is a ploy and an excuse. You have to tell your citizen a reason why their sons & daughters are going to die. The tricky part, however, is that Georgia is in the queue for a NATO membership. I doubt that in the current situation any other nation would interfere, though, since a) it's basicly an internal matter and b) frankly, the only nation with sufficient military strength to do so (USA), is overstretched at the moment. Further, the Russions wouldn't tolerate this.
The UN is out of the game, by default. The only option that remains, is a joint EU force, but since all the posters in this thread are Europeans, I don't have to point out how decisive the EU is.

[Xandax]

<snip> If one big country will go to war against China, we'll have WW3<snip>

I doubt a country is going to war with China, however China is having serious internal issues with some of its "provinces" where for example Muslims are predominant.
This then bears resemblance to the majority of other conflicts we've seen the last decade or so which most all are sparked by internal infighting and independence desires. Such as this current one.
Although we also have Tibet and Taiwan issues for example.
Just because China is a big (and powerful) country, does not mean regions in there will not become hotspots with terrorism and possible civil wars in the years to come - hence my remark about them.

[galraen]

The tricky part, however, is that Georgia is in the queue for a NATO membership.

Which may explain why they are 'going for it' now, to try and accomplish their goals before Georgia can become a member of NATO.

[GawainBS]

That's part of the reason, undoubtidly. (Not the faintest clue on how to spell that. )
I don't think even Puttin is megalomaniac enough to risk an all-out war with the NATO. Maybe in a few years, when the Russian army has been rebuilt and their economy fares a little better.

[DarthBob]

So it begins.

In the thirties the road to hell started with the occupation of the Rhineland, then escalated when Germany started claiming it's 'citizens' were being abused and murdered in other countries and using this invented pretext to invade.

Now Russia is using the same ploy in Georgia, were will it go next Kazakhstan, Estonia, Latvia? Who know were the crazy Russian bear will try to devour next.

Madmen in the Whitehouse with compliant mad pawns in Downing Street, madmen in the Kremlin and Beijing. Iraq followed by Tibet and now Georgia, may the Gods help us all.

What? Georgia attacked first didnt it?

[SupaCat]

Georgia attacked their own provence, where after Russia invaded Georgia.

[GawainBS]

Such conflicts are too complex to simply point the guilty finger at the party that first started hostilities.

[galraen]

I've deleted this post, got somewhat heated but have decided to just ignore Brother None from now on in this deabate.

[Lady Dragonfly]

Galraen, I think your righteous anger is misplaced. Watchin' too much CNN, eh? This particular war was started by Georgia. Georgia and Ossetia are fighting for about 20 years, in case you did not know. The conflict is mostly about territorial integrity.


And please note that THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUTH OSSETIA. It is a small agricultural region.

[Tricky]

I don't think it matters if it was started by Georgia. Russia has been actively claiming territory there, going as far as handing Georgian citizens Russian passports. Desired or not by these people, Russia had an agenda here. They cleverly waited out the building tensions until they could play the part of a peacekeeping force. That's foul. I'm with Georgia because nothing here hasn't already happened before in the US, Germany's or even Holland's not too distant past in south-east Asia. The lesser being manipulated by the greater.

I really do wish Russia would be disqualified for the Olympics. I know it's peanuts compared to people being murdered in Georgia, but the whole damn world is watching that instead of the news. I guess the superpowers (yes, including the US) are just untouchable, above IOC philosophy and all.

[GawainBS]

And please note that THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUTH OSSETIA. It is a small agricultural region.

Not directly, but there's a very important pipeline running through Ossetia. Initiating open hostilities in a conflict isn't the same as starting the conflict. The previous post made that pretty clear.

[Xandax]

<snip>
And please note that THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUTH OSSETIA. It is a small agricultural region.

Well, I've seen various media reports indicating otherwise, but even if there aren't any oil resources in the area, it is still an important issue due to pipelines.
As I understand it, Georgia have agreed to build pipelines leading oil/natural gas into Europe when they applied for NATO, threatening the Russian near (de facto) monopoly of energy pipelines.

Plus that fact - Georgia and NATO - is something Russia no doubt would dislike. Combined with the missile defense system. Combined with Russia's need for asserting itself internally and internationally.

Russia have many many interests in escalating the conflict with Georgia; economical, military and internal politics; and as far as reports goes, they also support separatists in other Georgian territorial regions, plus prior to this situation have violated Georgian territorial space with its military.
Russia does not have clean hands in this mess either.
Plus Russia is bombing Georgian territories and blockading the country by sea as well, moving far away from "peacekeeping" to prevent civil war, to actual acts of war.

[Tricky]

I don't know about Ossetia, but the whole of Georgia produces about 2000 barrels per day. That's very little though. Even Holland produces something in the area of 70.000 barrels per day. The pipelines probably have some strategic value, Georgia and Azerbaijan being a land bridge between the Caspian and the Black sea, but I can't see Russia start a war over something like that. It's different when it's 100% about the oil, like with the US, but I don't think that's the case here. I think the cause to this conflict has more ties to nationalism than capitalism.

Either way, I want to move away to a magical palace on the moon.