Russia invades Georgia - WW3 on it's way?

[Xandax]

Think of it as a castle: Tactically defensive, but strategically offensive. Cutting down on your opponents options is quite an offensive tactic.

I never understood why the US were so keen on that shield anyway, unless, you've got no intrest in letting the Cold War die.

The two aren't comparable in that manner.
A "castle" would also be a stronghold to launch offensively forces from as well, and as such it isn't a defensive tool.

The "shield" is defensive in the nature that it can only be used reactionary. Without incoming missiles, the shield is worthless.
The missile shield is there because of power balance and all that yes, but militarily it can never be used offensive, lest they change the layout of the weaponry, in which case it is no longer the missile shield but simply "ordinary" offensive missile silos.

[GawainBS]

But getting your defenses in place is the first step in a succesful offense. To quote Sun-Tzu (He is said to know a thing or two about war): "Make yourself invincible before your start to torn down that of your enemy."

I do not really want to use it as an argument, just use to show that this train of thought is quite a valid one, in military matters.
You don't fortify yourself unless you're expecting to need it. I understand that the Russians feel threatened by it. It basicly eliminates or lessens the only defense you have against a nuclear strike: the knowledge that if your opponent is so crazy that he launches an assault, you have the means to obliterate him as well. That was one of the chief balancing factors that kept the Cold War cold.

Then again, I'm not nearly suggesting that the US is on the verge of invading Russia, just that such a shield disrupts the balance.

[galraen]

Why do Russia feel threatened by it? Why are they portraying themselves as 'the enemy'? The cold war was over before Putin & Co reignited it, the only reason the makes any sense for their reaction is that they see it as thwarting their own military ambitions.

No way in hell that NATO is going to launch an attack at Russia, unless Russia starts the shooting themselves. Just consider the number of countries who would have to agree to participate. Does anyone with an IQ above 30 really think Poland is going to agree to an attack being launched at Russia from its soil? There is no threat to Russia except in the minds of delusional paranoids and frustrated empire builders.

[penguin_king]

if Russia do attempt their own Blitzkreig i think there are very few european nations (if any) that would be able to stop them.

i think it would need a combination of UK and US to bring the bear to its knees.

[GawainBS]

Frankly, the US is quite overstretched. The UK to a lesser extent. Having troops in two major theatres of war is a major drain.
Besides, why would Russia even consider doing that?

[penguin_king]

for the same reason Germany did it in the 40's

even though i studied this in history for 2 years i dont remember eactly why...

[Xandax]

Seems Russia will keep the occupation of Poti up, an (thee?) important harbour city of Georgia.

[Moonbiter]

Seems Russia will keep the occupation of Poti up, an (thee?) important harbour city of Georgia.

Yes. The interesting thing is that when they went into Poti, they confiscated about a dozen American military vehicles. Not Georgian, American. These were apparently awaiting shipment out of Georgia, after having been used in "training exercises." Nothing major, though. Some four Hummers and some trucks, the point is this: What the hell is the US military doing having "exercises" in Georgia? What sort of message does that send? I was an army-man for a long time, and I can't for the life of me remember when a non-NATO nation agreed to let the US practice warfare in their yard, especially on the border to Russia.

I stopped caring about this conflict a week ago, when the tabloid newspapers, using Georgian journalists as a source, showed pictures of "Russian tanks rampaging through Dusheti..." and showed Yank-produced M109 self-propelled artillery. The day the Russians use Yank 155mm howitzers is the day purple pigs wearing pink tutus fly kites out of King Harald's butt. On American Idol!

I'm too old for this. It's turned into a propaganda war, and people around me are losing the plot because of our built-in animosity towards Russia. Hell, I was born and raised with it! It's damn hard to get rid of. Like I said in my initial post, South Ossetia (and Abkhasia) are just mindless chumps with a fashionable "independence-fetish" with no plan and no future, except as tools for two schoolyard bullies marking their territory. This is not the beginning of the Third World War, it's a continuation of a war that's been going on since 1944, when the race towards Berlin started. The sad thing is that there's always a group of have-nots out there that will make a deal with the bully: "I will give you independence, feed you, clothe you, give you internet porn and make you happy if you take this assault rifle and rocket launcher and kill that other guy for me. Deal?"

[Xandax]

Yes. The interesting thing is that when they went into Poti, they confiscated about a dozen American military vehicles. Not Georgian, American. These were apparently awaiting shipment out of Georgia, after having been used in "training exercises." Nothing major, though. Some four Hummers and some trucks, the point is this: What the hell is the US military doing having "exercises" in Georgia? What sort of message does that send? I was an army-man for a long time, and I can't for the life of me remember when a non-NATO nation agreed to let the US practice warfare in their yard, especially on the border to Russia.
<snip>

Well - joint military exercises is nothing new, so can't understand your surprise in there being US material on Georgian grounds. In fact due to this conflict, Russia and NATO and Russia and Sweden have cancelled joint exercises.
It isn't strange - IMO - especially given the US/NATO attitude towards Georgia.

As for the WW3 reference, then I do not think so either, lest the conflict does indeed spread and the follow up events is that Russia will make some sort of pre-emptive military strike towards Poland's "Missile Shield".

I am however a bit "concerned" about the occupying of Piot, if the town is as economical important to Georgia as reports seem to indicate.

[Brother None]

OK Brothernone, your messxage is clear, Russia is wonderful, NATO is evil.

I have oodles of problems with Russia and Russian actions, and have stated so many times already in this thread.

I would appreciate it if attempts to shove me or the other people showing some understanding of Russia into some kind of "Russian patriot" corner would cease. Believe me, I've talked on this subject already with Russian nationalists and those guys are kookoo, I'd rather not be associated with their line of thinking. So give me a little credit and value my posts in the opinion they actually express, please?

To come to my own defence, I came to the debate here a bit late when the tone was already set, but you can tell my attitude from the outset from [url="http://www.rpgwatch.com/forums/showpost.php?p=90699&postcount=34"]my first post on the topic at RPGWatch[/url], particularly how it is noted there "are only guilty parties here", "There sure as hell aren't any good guys there" and:
Georgia is claiming massive casualties all at the hands of evil Russians. Russia is claiming attempted genocide from Georgian devils. Typical propaganda. Knowing these two countries, they probably both managed to get some blood on their hands in these few days.

I don't mean to offend anyone or anything, but I just think the tone of this debate and the (probably emotional) ascribing of opinions to other people is not very constructive.

The two aren't comparable in that manner.
A "castle" would also be a stronghold to launch offensively forces from as well, and as such it isn't a defensive tool.

Actually, the missile shield means the US will have to station military forces in Poland and probably make contact points (like airfields). It is a toehold, and it is an expanded capacity to launch offensive forces.

In fact, the missile shield itself has limited functionality, and has a fairly negligible chance of stopping any missile strikes from Iran. Poland - understandably always nervous about Russia - likes having US soldiers on their soil as security.

Does anyone with an IQ above 30 really think Poland is going to agree to an attack being launched at Russia from its soil?

In a rational world, Georgia would never have attacked South-Ossetia. But they did.

I am however a bit "concerned" about the occupying of Piot, if the town is as economical important to Georgia as reports seem to indicate.

It's a big hole in the peace treaty: Russia had the right to set up and occupy a demilitarized zone without any restrictions. They could have grabbed all of Georgia as a demilitarized zone according to the peace treaty. They didn't, but they definitely grabbed too much. They're looking to squeeze Georgia, and it doesn't help that Georgia's government isn't one Russia can negotiate with. NATO's bullying isn't helping, and Russia is basically just being an *******.

Big mess by this point, in other words. Someone has got to break and start serious negotiations, because all we've seen so far is a lot of chest-thumping from Russia, Georgia, NATO and the US. That's just not constructive. Russia is still the victor and in a position of power, so I'm hoping that they'll eventually be the one to put the brakes before this keeps spinning out of control. We'll know if Russia suddenly starts placing troops in Belorus, Cuba or Argentine.

From an international politics perspective, that's most worrying right now. But Medvedev/Putin are both smart enough to realise how little value there is in military grandstanding at an enormous political expense (other military grandstanding they generally enjoy) even if Dubyah is not. Perhaps the EU under Sarkozy will step up as the middle party, they're well positioned for it.