Lazarus writes:
I earlier said I respected your skepticism, fable, but this statement makes me wonder. If you have "absolutely no proof," well then why assume that the tape is a hoax? Why make any judgement on it whatsoever? It IS good to question and judge, but when you simply propose a "theory" with absolutely no proof or reason, it makes your entire stance seem biased.
I don't assume the tape is a hoax. You asked for my opinion, and I gave you my current belief, based on several conditions that would have to be fulfilled for the tape to be what the US government claims of it. My mind's not closed, and I'm willing to change it anytime, provided some explanation is forthcoming that covers those conditions.
Nor am I judging anything. Why should I? You asked for an opinion, as ill-informed as the next. I gave it. When more facts surface, ask me once again. If you don't want my tentative theories on the matter, perhaps you shouldn't request 'em.
Let's consider what we know about the matter:
1) bin Ladan has allowed only a few interviews over the last decade, with internationally respected journalists, who were searched beforehand, and whose questions were discussed in advance.
2) bin Ladan is surrounded at all times by a coterie of fanatical bodyguards who are close friends and longtime associates.
3) bin Ladan has denied any complicity in the September attacks. (Note, I am not discussing his involvement, which remains conjectural, in any case; the main point to focus on is denial of complicity.)
4) For a video tape (plus sound) to be made, you need a pretty large, obvious piece of recording equipment.
5) Such a piece of equipment was supposedly held by somebody in bin Ladan's presence.
6) It was held at just the right moment by someone in bin Ladan's inner circle of bodyguards and lieutenants to allow him to indicate his complicity in the September attacks.
7) The video tape just happened to be left in the street of a city, several hundred miles away from bin Ladan and his closest followers.
8) The tape just happened to be picked up by somebody who managed to get it directly into American hands.
I can't see anything other than a satire being written out of the above circumstances, and a pretty far-fetched satire, too. It is too absurd for reality. It seems ridiculous (to me) that anybody who is as (rightly) paranoid as bin Ladan would pose in front of a known video camera and openly discuss points that contradict his public stance on the September attacks. More incomprehensible still are the series of steps that supposedly led to the video tape showing up in US government hands.
I would only add that every government save the US has either remained officially silent about the tape's creditability, or gone on record as "expressing doubt" (diplomatic phrase for "what a fraud") over its authenticity.
In the meantime, I'd like your opinion of Dubbyah's Military Order and its implications, when you get a chance.
[ 12-16-2001: Message edited by: fable ]