Warning: long answer to Beowulf! May skip to the conclusive list
First about the "skepticism part". Then you'll see that this part is "marginal" anyways.
Firstly, you've assumed that human behaviour is directly analogous to the functioning of non-computable algorithms. Maybe it is, but if it's not, your whole reasoning is flawed, and I haven't seen you present any proof
You're wrong, I've not assumed such a thing.
We don't know how human behavior is determined, while we do know how the algorithm works.
So, the point was: if a small, "simple" problem, in which all the variables (and their behavior) are totally and precisely KNOWN (as well as its complexity), isn't fully
tractable because of exponentially growing ramifications, what can we say about a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT problem, of which the sole level of complexity can't be even guessed??
A problem of which you can't even know which are the variables (internal, external or whatever), that can have some degree of influence? Its tractability can only be worse (even if you use different means to study it).
If you negate this point, you affirm that human behavior is somehow "more predictable" than a simple, fully deterministic algorithm... well you can affirm it if you want, I won't stop you.
(don't get fouled by the word "computability". It can well be used out of the software context. Think in terms of "available time and memory". If you haven't enough of them to handle a problem, you can't totally dominate it. Try to write down ALL the possible human behaviors and see if you have enough space to do it. Let alone to test them all. Or.. try to elencate all the possible interconnections of the brain cells... then try to define how these interconnections can be altered... then FOR EACH OF THE METHODS: try to define how altering one of these interconnections may alter ALL the billions others, how altering TWO of them change the others, how altering a different couple changes things... etc)
Secondly, you assume that the studies CE cited are themselves making assumptions, yet you admitted that you don't follow the links she gave.
I think you didn't get the meaning of my whole post.
I don't need to see them to know they make assumptions. Nor do I need to counter these assumptions.
I'm not the one pretending to know Truths.
I just aknwoledge the fact that many scientists think they have proven something, in my book this translates in some more points to that theory, but not in the Truth of that theory.
But you'll get your examples.
First, let's clarify that assumptions are *NECESSARY* to any kind of scientific study.
To start, if you just focus on studying a single field, you are assuming that separating it from the rest of the "knowledgeable" will not compromise the validity of the results. This is already an assumption, and the cardinality of things -
possibly correlated- that you're excluding is infinite.
Then specific assumptions take place.
You can't study geometry without assuming (with no proof), the validity of some basic concepts.
Nor mathemathics.
Nor physics. Here, to study matters "as they are" would be simply intractable, so you study semplifications of the problems, hoping the approximation will be enough to build structures or machines which manage to work as we'd want.
Engineers take care to translate this "faulty" theory into practice.
And mind you, even so, machines work only in average by our desires. We can't foresee short circuits, we can't avoid plane-crashes... Modellizing every possible interaction with the external world, in order to prevent everything, would be impossible. We lack every possible mean to build such a complete model. So we build simplified models even for the
operating modes, or states, of the machine. We cut TONS of possible interactions with the external world.
We ASSUME this model will be enough to control the intended behavior of the machine. What happens at best, is that the model is enough only "most of the times" (actually we know and accept it).
We are unable to *compute* every possible aspect and interaction, we can't claim to be in real control of the situation.
Social studies... They start with the basic assumption that the pool of people they work on can be omni-representative. This is an
ENORMOUS assumption. To be omni-representative, tests should be made with all the people that live, have lived or will EVER live.
This is of course impossible. So studies have a statistical approach. I do recognize them the validity of statistics being a good guideline. But no more. You simply DON'T KNOW if an external individual can still behave out of the indications of the tests, forcing an alternative theory for everything.
My example:
Try testing the matter all around you. Anything you can find. The table, the glass. The walls. The street, your own hand.
The trees. You'll probably find that nothing is radioactive (or mesureably so). Even if you test the 99,99999% of the matter composing the world, you'd still probably find that nothing is radioactive.
If you then build a "mental model" of how the matter "behaves", the model will probably be grossly wrong. For not having tested a mere 0,000000000000001% or so of the total matter, you miss a good passage, or a positive font of doubts, for understanding the WHOLE structure of the matter and its rules.
Your mistake? You didn't test enough, though you tested A LOT. You ASSUMED your tests were enough to explain.
How many things could miss social studies of any kind, simply by focusing on SOME individuals, SOME social situations, SOME cultural environments (Consider even individuals and cultures that don't yet exist, but will exist in the future!)??
Well so many, that I can't even imagine their number.
How much the understanding of the whole frame can be flawed?
We don't know a lot of things, a lot of details, and a lot of mechanisms that lie under the surface of evidence.
How much those would be important? We don't know.
To me, every kind of "revolution" of what is now considered a "fact" in this field, or any other, is still possible or even probable.
Having a limited view can be really devastating for understanding. And unluckily, we DO have a limited view for things that we can't even compute. No, we have a limited view practically for all.
Hundreds of years ago, people - and scientists among them - believed Earth was flat. It wasn't a "procedural" mistake in their reasonments. It was what they could see. Earth, from the limited, on-ground perspective, seemed flat.
But having a whole community of people and scientists who believed it true, didn't make Earth flat.
What do we have nowadays? A scientific community who searches and works, judging on what they have available, and believing, ASSUMING, or simply, hoping, that what is perceivable and testable today is
correct or enough to explain. What is seen may be correct, probably it is, but "enough"... surely is not.
Believing, assuming, hoping... ironically, these are the terms I would use for religion.
On a different level maybe, but even science needs, AT SOME POINT, these very things to procede!
Now, I don't follow CE's links for the following reasons:
- I completely trust CE's words about the conclusions of those studies, so no point in verifying them myself.
- I still have founded doubts given all the reasons above, though I'm not negating the usefulness of the scientists' work. I only recall its inherent limits.
- Even assuming common agreement on "facts", still my MORAL conclusions are different than CE's.
She seems to say with those links: "These are the facts, if you knew them like I do you should form the same opinions as me".
Well MORALITY is another thing. If I followed science to form my morality, I'd promote the Law of the Strongest. Actually it would seem to me the only derivable moral teaching.