Export revolutions 2.0
Posted: Wed Sep 14, 2011 12:39 pm
I would like to talk about a geopolitical tool that has gained wide popularity in the last two decades or so, namely the so-called export revolution (also known as "revolution of roses"). Generally speaking, this term describes an externally sponsored uprising of a group of people with the sole purpose of overthrowing the existing regime (note - improving the life of the local populace is of minor concern in this scenario). External help usually comes in the form of financial donations, military expertise, weapons shipments and most importantly, "correct" media coverage. Only in rare cases (recently in Libya) does "the helping hand" involve itself directly in the struggle, preferring to achieve its political and economic goals by sacrificing the locals.
This simple schematic was first tested by the US and its allies in Serbia and a little later in countries like Georgia, Ukraine and some others, with impressive results. Those were export revolutions v.1.0, the regimes were unable to defend themselves and toppled over fairly quickly giving way to the march of the "proud saviors".
However, local rulers soon recognized this threat and took steps to counter it, as a result several such attempted coups failed and Washington had to take a pause to adapt to this new strategic challenge.
What we are currently witnessing in the Middle East is a come-back of an old and trusty tool - export revolutions v. 2.0. Violence, which regimes are forced to employ to defend themselves against movements organized and controlled from abroad, is adroitly used to delegitimise them. A ruler is effectively caught in a vicious circle - no matter what he does, he loses power, the outcome is preordained due to the very nature of this phenomenon.
Due to the favorable cost/effect ratio of said method and the fact that groups of uncontented individuals can be found in any country, it can be safely assumed that we will see it employed again and again in the near future.
Please discuss.
This simple schematic was first tested by the US and its allies in Serbia and a little later in countries like Georgia, Ukraine and some others, with impressive results. Those were export revolutions v.1.0, the regimes were unable to defend themselves and toppled over fairly quickly giving way to the march of the "proud saviors".
However, local rulers soon recognized this threat and took steps to counter it, as a result several such attempted coups failed and Washington had to take a pause to adapt to this new strategic challenge.
What we are currently witnessing in the Middle East is a come-back of an old and trusty tool - export revolutions v. 2.0. Violence, which regimes are forced to employ to defend themselves against movements organized and controlled from abroad, is adroitly used to delegitimise them. A ruler is effectively caught in a vicious circle - no matter what he does, he loses power, the outcome is preordained due to the very nature of this phenomenon.
Due to the favorable cost/effect ratio of said method and the fact that groups of uncontented individuals can be found in any country, it can be safely assumed that we will see it employed again and again in the near future.
Please discuss.