Wow, I made one heck of a prediction

[MACpistol.com]

I'll be honest, I had forgotten about this forum until I got an email telling me happy birthday

So I searched my posts to reacquaint myself with what posts I had made and I found a rather chilling prediction I made exactly one year ago today:

http://www.gamebanshee.com/forums/speak ... 96208.html

[C Elegans]

I followed the link to your old post. What is the "rather chilling prediction" you made?

[dragon wench]

I followed the link to your old post. What is the "rather chilling prediction" you made?

Glad it wasn't just me who was wondering that....

[Demortis]

I think it was the fact that Obama made Pres. I could be wrong...

[MACpistol.com]

I think it was the fact that Obama made Pres. I could be wrong...

Holy smoke did anybody bother to read before they posted?



Wow, sorry to be so complicated.

I guess I have to spell it out (only because I don't think you bothered to read what I linked to). A year ago to the day I predicted that the election would be between Mccain and Obama (gee, try reading the title of the post I linked to). I guess I should also spell out that the reason it's amazing is that this prediction was made many months before the primaries (if you don't know what the primaries are then I give up). At the time I made the prediction, neither party had come close to selecting a candidate.

You ladies don't follow politics at all I take it.

Wow.

[dragon wench]

Actually, I followed the US election with avid interest.. However, the timeline became rather blurred for me. Where I'm from, we don't have primaries, so I lost track

I suppose part of what threw me was your qualifier "chilling." I really don't see what is so chilling about it.

[Demortis]

Holy smoke did anybody bother to read before they posted?



Wow, sorry to be so complicated.

I guess I have to spell it out (only because I don't think you bothered to read what I linked to). A year ago to the day I predicted that the election would be between Mccain and Obama (gee, try reading the title of the post I linked to). I guess I should also spell out that the reason it's amazing is that this prediction was made many months before the primaries (if you don't know what the primaries are then I give up). At the time I made the prediction, neither party had come close to selecting a candidate.

You ladies don't follow politics at all I take it.

Wow.

Not everyone thinks on your wave length. Sooooo, why is it that we should try to in the first place? You never made it clear about what your "prediction" was. And I think DW and CE are alil bit smarter then you give them credit for. Might want to remember that before you get someone like Fable and Xander on ya.

[C Elegans]

Holy smoke did anybody bother to read before they posted?

Wow, sorry to be so complicated.

I guess I have to spell it out (only because I don't think you bothered to read what I linked to). A year ago to the day I predicted that the election would be between Mccain and Obama (gee, try reading the title of the post I linked to). I guess I should also spell out that the reason it's amazing is that this prediction was made many months before the primaries (if you don't know what the primaries are then I give up). At the time I made the prediction, neither party had come close to selecting a candidate.

You ladies don't follow politics at all I take it.

Wow.

Dear MACpistol, I've followed the US election process since 2007. I have also read the post you linked to. Already back in the autumn of 2007, most people believed that the Democrat race would be between Obama, Hillary and Edwards, and by early 2008 it was evident that Obama and Hillary would emerge as the most likely candidates. However, Edwards was not excluded at this point as far as I know, so let's be generous and say you had three Democrat candidates to choose from, two more likely and one less likely.

Over to the Republicans. Despite other names having the advantage in 2007, John McKain emerged as the most popular candidate in polls already in January 2008 (see this article, for instance)
New poll finds McCain reshaping GOP race - The New York Times- msnbc.com
29th January, Giuliani withdrew from the race, leaving McCain and Romney. Giuliani publically supported McCain, mind you. So that leaves us with two candidates, one more likely and one less likely.

So, by the end of January 2008, Obama was viewed as the most likely Democrat candidate and McCain was viewed as the most likely Republican candidate by several major news media. This view was based on poll data and the results of the New Hampshire and Florida primaries, which took place the 8th January 2008.
New Hampshire primary, 2008 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
McCain wins Florida, Giuliani expected to drop out - CNN.com

Your post was written the 3rd February 2008. In your post, you manage to predict that the candidates that were viewed by most media as most likely, would win. Even if we completely ignore media predictions and avaible poll and preliminary data, you managed to pick the correct Democrat candidate out of 3 (Obama, Hillary, Edwards) and the correct Republican candidate out of two (McCain, Romney).

The random chance to choose the correct alternative out of 3, is 33.33%. The random chance to choose the correct alternative out of 2, is 50%.
The random chance to pick both 1/3 and 1/2, is 1/6, ie 16.66%.

So you managed to make the correct prediction when you had a random 1/6 chance of being correct. In addition, it wasn't completely random since some alternatives were more likely than others. To predict an event that has a 1/6 chance of occuring can hardly be viewed as a "chilling predicition".

Compare with an ordinary dice. If you are about to throw the dice and I predict "it's going to be a 5" and you throw a 5, do you think that's a "rather chilling" "heck of a prediction" too?

[Demortis]

Never mind, guess we dont need to get Fable, when CE pulls out some nukes.... I love women with brains!!!!

[Tricky]

You should.. really add a smiley somewhere in that post, CE. At this rate you'll be elected Queen Passive-Aggressive during the next SYM awards.

[Xandax]

Holy smoke did anybody bother to read before they posted?



Wow, sorry to be so complicated.

I guess I have to spell it out (only because I don't think you bothered to read what I linked to). A year ago to the day I predicted that the election would be between Mccain and Obama (gee, try reading the title of the post I linked to). I guess I should also spell out that the reason it's amazing is that this prediction was made many months before the primaries (if you don't know what the primaries are then I give up). At the time I made the prediction, neither party had come close to selecting a candidate.

You ladies don't follow politics at all I take it.

Wow.

Come now - lets keep a civil tone.
Firstly remember it isn't a US only board, but international board with many of us being non-USians. Many of us follow US politics as well though.

<snip>Might want to remember that before you get someone like Fable and Xander on ya.

Who's Xander?

As for the "prediction" itself, I think CE sums it up nicely:

<snip>
Your post was written the 3rd February 2008. In your post, you manage to predict that the candidates that were viewed by most media as most likely, would win. <snip>

[Demortis]

Who's Xander?

Im gonna pull a BS, "The booze made me do it?" It was late and I was lazy The point got across!!!

Maybe we should get CE some happy pills.... or atleast a kitten...

[C Elegans]

@Tricky, I think you have misunderstood what passive-aggressive means. Passive-aggressive behaviour is behaviours meant to avoid confrontation by escaping the situation. Common passive-aggressive behaviours include agreeing to do something and them simply not do it, lying or claim that you were joking or have forgotten. It's a passive resistence to something, hence "passive-aggressive".

I didn't add a smiley since I was not joking - not at all, my post is dead serious. Thus, if I had added a smiley it would have been passive-aggressive, ie pretenting to be joking although in reality I am critisising MACpistols conclusions.

@Demortis: Thanks, but I am quite happy and I don't like kittens

[Demortis]

Look for bodies, I think I can smell the rotting stench of the dead here!!!

@CE: Then what about a puppy? Can you just stop please? We want him alive, your beating him to death with the business end of a mallet here love!

[Kipi]

@CE: Then what about a puppy? Can you just stop please? We want him alive, your beating him to death with the business end of a mallet here love!

Ooor.... we could just get some popcorn and drink and enjoy the show...

[Demortis]

Ooor.... we could just get some popcorn and drink and enjoy the show...

id enjoy that as much as the next guy, but castration, even over the net seems harsh, ya know *runs around hiding all the sharp utensils*

[dragon wench]

Must the conversation degenerate into the beating of defenseless and innocent animals? Next we'll have BS in here molesting gerbils... or Weasel will make a return, mount the stage and proceed to start committing unspeakable acts with donkeys...

[Kipi]

Must the conversation degenerate into the beating of defenseless and innocent animals? Next we'll have BS in here molesting gerbils... or Weasel will make a return, mount the stage and proceed to start committing unspeakable acts with donkeys...

Well, the SYM has been a bit quiet lately... :devil:

Though the image of BS or Weasel makes want to cry...:speech:

[Demortis]

Well, the SYM has been a bit quiet lately... :devil:

Though the image of BS or Weasel makes want to cry...:speech:

Makes you want to cry, I havent been here in almost two years and I would have stayed blissfully ignorant that those attracuties(sp?) were ever commited...

[Vicsun]

Must the conversation degenerate into the beating of defenseless and innocent animals?

Right here and now, I'm coining the term forum darwinism.