Hans, Hans, Hans! I don't have any weapons of mass destwuction, OK Hans?

[Zelgadis]

I'm not amused, not one bit

I was just there, don't make me go back. Damn these petty dictators.

[Xandax]

Don't think it'll change much to be honest. N.Korea will just continue blackmailing the international community while being allowed to produce it's military capabilities as it has for the last decade or so.
I strongly doubt this would change much.


(Oh, and couldn't help by notice your "Team America" title - great fun....)

[VonDondu]

It looks like the nuclear test was detected by the US Geological Survey:
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program » Magnitude 4.2 - NORTH KOREA

Xandax, once we get confirmation that North Korea actually tested a nuclear weapon for the first time, there will be one significant change: it will mean that North Korea is no longer just a country that is trying to become a nuclear power; they have now become a nuclear power. That is significant.

President Clinton made an agreement with North Korea in 1994 in which North Korea agreed to suspend plutonium production in exchange for help building light water nuclear reactors (the kind that can't be used to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons) and a vague promise of diplomatic normalization. There is some speculation that North Korea continued its efforts to develop nuclear weapons in secret, but their main plutonium production was shut down until 2002. Diplomacy was working.

In 2002, the Bush administration tried a different approach, since in their view, anything that Clinton did was bad. Bush made a bunch of insulting remarks about Kim Jong Il and threatened to use force against North Korea if they tried to restart their nuclear weapons program-related activities. Kim Jong Il called Bush's bluff, and Bush responded by...doing absolutely nothing. If Bush refuses to acknowledge a problem, then it doesn't exist, right? The only problem is that, back in reality, North Korea re-opened its plutonium production plant and started producing plutonium again. They didn't have a nuclear weapon back in 2002, but now they have one. What you can expect in the future is called "escalation".

I think that makes a BIG difference.

[LordAce]

I agree, Jong certainly called Bush's bluff. I think it's because he knows that N. Korea doesn't have much, if any, oil. Seriously though, this could be pretty bad.

[Xandax]

@VonDondu: The reason why I do not think it will change much is that there are already nuclear weapons in the hands of what I percive as unstable countries.

No doubt it will cause more arms race in Asia, however it is an arms race which I would think already exsited. Now, I'm by no means an expert on this area, however N.Korea is a state which uses blackmail backed by military power to get the aid they need while spending money on weapons, and have done so for many years. I would have no doubt this would have continued with or withouth nuclear powers. The area have been a powder keg for years, which incidently is also why I doubt the US would ever have attacked N.Korea (that and no oil) using the rethroric of WMD they used in Iraq.

There is a fear that terrorists will have easier access to nuclear weapons, but in my estimate that fear is already real and present by the spread of nuclear weapons and the fact that some "unstable" countries infact have these weapons, and I do not see this as an increased fear simply because N.Korea develops weapons.

As for the Clinton vs. Bush comparison, then I would personally hold little doubts if indeed N.Koreas weapon program wasn't in action while "diplomacy was working", despite them saying otherwise. Perhaps at a slower pace due to less weapongraded plutonimum production, but I strongly doubt it was even near a standstill.

N.Korea has worked towards this for years, and it has been (should have been) known to all that they attempted to become nuclear powers. And a coutry which repeatedly, as mentioned, used military as a means to blackmail for aid would have no interest in stopping such attempts to develop nuclear capabilities simply because the world around it says "no".
I see it as no suprise but a logical step, and I still doubt this would cause any greater effect we wouldn't have seen otherwise anyway. Any events which spring from this would have happened anyway, perhaps just a couple of years later.

[VonDondu]

No doubt it will cause more arms race in Asia, however it is an arms race which I would think already exsited...

If you want an example of something new that could happen, Japan will probably re-arm itself now. That would certainly change the dynamics of the arms race.

I see it as no suprise but a logical step, and I still doubt this would cause any greater effect we wouldn't have seen otherwise anyway. Any events which spring from this would have happened anyway, perhaps just a couple of years later.

In other words, it's happening on Bush's watch instead of the next President's watch. It makes me shudder. Did you know that U.S. military planners are drawing up plans for nuclear attacks on various targets? I really hope that Karl Rove's "October Surprise" doesn't turn out to be a nuclear attack on Iran, but the problem with our current leadership is that they're capable of doing all sorts of stupid things. Two years could have made a big difference in this case.

[Magrus]

I can only say, I am shocked there isn't a clamoring among other countries for nuclear weapons purchases to see to it they have a way to keep the US out of their country. N. Korea, if this is true, now has the ability to truly defend itself and can give the US the finger for their actions.

As far as Japan, yeah, I would definately think they would be rearming themselves about now. Hell, even without N. Korea involved, I would suggest they do so. Once the oil wars are settled, well...China and Japan are probably the biggest sources of imports and trade with the US with the possible exclusion of Canada and Mexico. Anyone trusting in this US government to keep them safe is delusional, and Japan definately has the resources and technological know how in order to shift gears and focus on defense instead of wiping the floor with other countries in business.

[Xandax]

<snip>
In other words, it's happening on Bush's watch instead of the next President's watch. It makes me shudder. Did you know that U.S. military planners are drawing up plans for nuclear attacks on various targets? I really hope that Karl Rove's "October Surprise" doesn't turn out to be a nuclear attack on Iran, but the problem with our current leadership is that they're capable of doing all sorts of stupid things. Two years could have made a big difference in this case.

I would be suprised if GWB is dumb enough to actually attack N.Korea. There are few, if any, economical reasons to do so and very few strategic reasons why the USA would make a preemptive nuclear strike towards N.Korea. And conventional attacks on N.Korea is out of the question for a prolonged periode of time because of the sheer size of the N.Korean conventional army.

If GWB actually was interested in attacking other countries based on "threat" (and WMD) as he claimed with Iraq, he'd have attacked sooner, rather then later.

I see no change in the military standoff currently in effect in Asia with this nuclear test. If anything, it could (hopefully) deteroriate the historical relationship between China and N.Korea.

[Ashen]

President Clinton made an agreement with North Korea in 1994 in which North Korea agreed to suspend plutonium production in exchange for help building light water nuclear reactors (the kind that can't be used to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons) and a vague promise of diplomatic normalization. There is some speculation that North Korea continued its efforts to develop nuclear weapons in secret, but their main plutonium production was shut down until 2002. Diplomacy was working.

The story about that 1994 agreement is an interesting one it seems. When there was that first announcement by the NK about it BBC had a program about it with an ex-British diplomat as a guest. He says and from what I've read about it, I believe it, that the fault for the failure of that lies on the back of the West and it's failure to comply with it's part of the bargain. To think it could have been solved then!

Anyway, I don't think anything dramatic will happen - there will be a UN resolution of some kind, condeming the whole thing etc, etc but the fact stands that if they did make it - NK is a nuclear power and I doubt that even GWB is that stupid to go for it. Also, I do not believe that there will be a significant change in the China/NK relations, not where it counts - public proclamations aside. What they might do is abstain from a vote in the UN instead of veto-ing it, but from my own observation of the Chinese I doubt they would have used it in the first place (I am talking about something other than the usual condemnation resolution).

[Vicsun]

Anyway, I don't think anything dramatic will happen - there will be a UN resolution of some kind, condeming the whole thing etc, etc

This time, there's a real possibility the UN will impose sanctions. Japan has been calling for a total embargo on all trade with North Korea for ages. DPRK-China relations have been sour for a while, and while China has vetoed any resolutions hinting at economic sanctions, this might now change. Beijing has a huge interest in keeping the region stable and previous fears of North Korean refugees is now overshadowed by the much bigger fears of Japan going nuclear.

Also, I do not believe that there will be a significant change in the China/NK relations, not where it counts - public proclamations aside.

If I'm reading into your statement right, you seem to be implying that current China/DPRK relations are flowery, even if behind the curtains. What are you basing this on?

What they might do is abstain from a vote in the UN instead of veto-ing it, but from my own observation of the Chinese I doubt they would have used it in the first place (I am talking about something other than the usual condemnation resolution).

Again, what are you basing this on? They have vetoed every single resolution calling for sanctions in the past.


edit: for what it's worth, as far as I can tell, the biggest change North Korea's nuclear test will bring about is Japan's re-militarization and possible development of nuclear weapons. Relations between Japan and China were warming up - Shinzo Abe made the first official visit to Beijing in five years and is likely to cease visiting the Yasukuni shrine. Those are all good things. The moment Japan modifies is constitution, or, God forbid, tests a nuclear weapon, is the moment when Chinese-Japanese relations will go from lukewarm to blistering cold. China already has problems with anti-Japanese protests (which is in a way humorous since it was the party's own anti-Japanese, nationalistic policy that created those protesters), and anything that Japan does that can be deemed aggressive will surely exacerbate the situation.