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Location: Fort Frostmoth, Gaea Artoria or Saenus Lusius (see below)

1. Yes, the fort has been attacked in your absense. (must have been a well-planned lightning quick attack eh since you were only gone, what... probably 20 minutes :) Part of the fort is destroyed when you get back from the smuggling cave. Speak with a guard and they'll tell you Carius isn't there, and to find either Gaea or Saenus Lusius, depending on who your companion is.

2. Find the appropriate person, Gaea or Lusius and they'll tell you about the Skaal people, Nords of a northern village who, as strange as it may sound, might know more about his disappearance.

Note: if either one is hostile to you, read the tip in the walkthrough link directly above, Frostmoth Smugglers.

You'll recieve a skaal skull, in hopes that with that sympathetic gesture, the skaal people will open up to you easier.

3. Here's where the first long journey of the expansion will take place. Expect to wander past many aggressive creatures on your way there, but many scenic places. The village will be marked on your map, so when you finally show up, speak with anyone outside and they'll tell you to head to the Great Hall and have a chat with their leader, Tharsten Heart-Fang.